What’s up everybody I’m the new guy here. Little about me, like Dickie I’m a die hard Boston fan, I’ll die for Brady and Belichick, I’ll go to war for Brad Stevens, and I’d follow Alex Cora into the depths of hell. What a time for Boston sports I fucking love being the best at everything. Second, I love gambling I live for it. While I’ll admit that I have an extensive history of ice cold losing streaks, I have found the formula. The gods spoke to me in a dream, I know the outcomes of games before they happen. So bottom line is if your not a moron, ride with me and I’ll you make some coin. Lets get to the picks:
#1 Alabama @ #3 LSU +14.5 O/U 53.5
Arguably the biggest game of the year. #1 Alabama lead by Heisman favorite Tua Tagovailoa taking on Coach O’s #3 ranked Louisiana State Tigers in Death Valley. Lets get to it.
- I get it, Bama is good. Like really fucking good. But 14.5 point favorites on the road in Death Valley against a #3 ranked LSU team good? Fuck outta here. I mean that’s just utter nonsense if you ask me. In their past 12 meetings in Death Valley, the Bama is 8-3-1 ATS. Bama is averaging a whopping 54.1 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 15.2 PPG. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, this team is a fucking machine. HOWEVA, LSU has been pretty damn good themselves. Besides the week 6 road loss in Florida, the Tigers defense has been strong as they have limited their opponents to just 15.1 PPG and when their at home their even better. Averaging 33.3 PPG on offense and holding their opponents to 11 per game when playing in Death Valley.
- The crowd is going to be BUZZING on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. Dickie and I might even roady down there for the action, it’s going to be that fucking good. LSU needs to force turnovers and get stops early to keep the crowd into it. The Tigers also will also need to win the time of possession category and keep Tua and this potent Alabama offense off the field for as long as possible.
- Coach O is going to have the boys in purple and gold ready for an all out fucking war. Death Valley will be rocking, and it’d be contradictory to my morals and values to bet against the Tigers at home. LSU you hasn’t beat Bama in seven yes seven years. But this is the most athletic, most physical defense that Bama has seen this year. Tua hasn’t taken a snap in the fourth quarter yet, well Saturday night were gonna see his true colors. As good as Bama is I just don’t see any way that LSU doesn’t cover a 14.5 point spread as home dawgs.
- PICK: LSU 14.5.
🗣 WE COMIN'… AND WE AIN'T BACKING DOWN! pic.twitter.com/sUcv2I8k9x
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) November 1, 2018
#13 West Virginia @ #17 Texas -2, O/U 58
Another battle of two ranked teams in the Big 12 as the Mountaineers head to Texas to take on the 17th ranked Longhorns.
- Coming off a a tough loss to Oklahoma State in Stillwater where tempers flared between head coaches Tom Herman and Mike Gundy. Now if I know one thing about Tom Herman he’s coming into this week pissed off, looking to snap necks and cash checks. Definitely something to take note of on the gambling side of things
ABSOLUTE MAYHEM 😱
Tom Herman & Mike Gundy get into fiery exchange on the field at the end of Texas vs Oklahoma State. pic.twitter.com/OgDdqUSvL5
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 28, 2018
- Will Grier is leading the Mountaineers into Austin after absolutely demolishing Baylor 41-0 at the half. This is bad bad news for a Texas secondary that got absolutely shredded for 321 yards and 3 TD by Oklahoma State’s Tyler Cornelius last week.
- West Virginia’s offense seems to have hit their stride offensively last week against Baylor, a pissed off Texas playing with a meaningful game after Halloween for the first time in four years. This game screams over to me. Lock it in at Over 58. As for the spread I’m not as confident in. I think this game could honestly go either way and could evidently come down to who has the last possession. Gun to my head, I like West Virginia +2. the Mountaineers are 3-1 ATS on the road while the Longhorns are 3-2 at ATS at home. I think West Virginia is a better team and their offense will ultimately prevail in this one. Take West Virginia +2 and outright.
- PICK: OVER 58, West Virginia +2
#14 Penn State @ #5 Michigan -12 O/U 53.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions head to Ann Arbor to take the #5 ranked Michigan Wolverines at the Big House. The Wolverines come into this one as 12 point favorites over a ranked Penn State team who grinded out an ugly home win against Iowa last week.
- Penn State really just hasn’t been playing great football of late, after losing two straight to Ohio State and Michigan State, the blue and white were able to scrap out wins against Indiana and Iowa, but they were by no means easy. Last week against Iowa it came down to their defense making a play late in the game to keep a driving Iowa offense out of the endzone in the final minute. And a week before they played a sloppy game against Indiana in which they pulled out a 33-28 win. Trace McSorley has shown flashed of great quarterback play but has struggled late in games lately especially last week against Iowa.
- Michigan on the other hand has continued to improve after dropping their first game of the season to #4 ranked Notre Dame. Their defense has been great, allowing just 14.1 PPG which is currently 6th in the nation. On the offensive side of the ball, Jim Harbaugh finally has a competent quarterback that can execute big plays. I think Michigan is a team that can get into the playoff and make some noise if they keep this level of play up.
- I think Michigans defense is ultimately going to be too much for Trace McSorley and Penn State to handle especially given the fact this game is being played in Ann Arbor. Lock in Michigan and the points.
- PICK: Michigan -12
Some other picks to consider:
- Boston College -2.5 @ Virginia Tech
- Auburn -3 vs. Texas A&M
- Fresno State -26.5 @ UNLV
- Stanford +10 @ Washington
May the gambling gods be with you all this Saturday